Predicting change in a Time of War and an Age of Wonder

Author: Simon Wardley, James Kirk (

Categories: Age of Wonder - Time of War, mapping and strategic plays, mapping and wonder
It turns out that once you start mapping out environments you can determine common or sort of economic patterns.  So how efficiency enables innovation and how we have inertia and how inertia kills organisations and how the economy goes through cycles, through a stage of peace, war and wonder.  And there is an awful lot which is predictable about change.  It’s not this completely random sort of thing that we are led to believe.  A lot in terms of how things evolve with is actually predictable.  Now the interesting change is when it comes to prediction you can often actually say what is going to happen but not necessarily when or you can say when something is going to happen.  But not necessarily what and mapping just like looking at a chess board gives you a way of narrowing down on the scope of those change.  So we are going through a particular part of the economic cycle at the moment which is caused through commoditization of a range of activities.  So we are seeing disruption of pre-existing industries but as a result you also get explosion of new things being created.  So you get this time of war in terms of past industries being destroyed and this time of wonder in terms of new things are rapidly being created.  Nothing new with that we have gone through seven of those economic cycles in the last 300 years.  It doesn’t matter where it is the age of electricity or the mechanical age they are all the same.  But the advantage of mapping is you can start to manipulate that to your favour.  It enables you to spot what is likely to occur and so that’s what the project is about how we apply those techniques to identify what is going to occur.
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